World Cup Forecast

2026 FIFA World Cup

48 teams · 12 groups · co-hosted by USA, Mexico & Canada · Jun 11 – Jul 19
Updated June 4, 2026, 11:43 PM ET

Group Stage

Probability each team advances to the Round of 32 — the top two from every group plus the eight best third-placed teams. Flip any card to see the full 1st–4th finishing breakdown.

QualifiedProjected to advanceOn the bubbleEliminated
A
Group A
Mexico favoured · 95.8% to advance
Mexico
MexicoMEX · HOST
95.8%
Korea Republic
Korea RepublicKOR
83.9%
Czechia
CzechiaCZE
69.2%
South Africa
South AfricaRSA
22.7%
B
Group B
Switzerland favoured · 97.7% to advance
Switzerland
SwitzerlandSUI
97.7%
Canada
CanadaCAN · HOST
79.2%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & HerzegovinaBIH
54.2%
Qatar
QatarQAT
18.3%
C
Group C
Brazil favoured · 98.6% to advance
Brazil
BrazilBRA
98.6%
Morocco
MoroccoMAR
95.7%
Scotland
ScotlandSCO
73.2%
Haiti
HaitiHAI
8.8%
D
Group D
Türkiye favoured · 92.6% to advance
Türkiye
TürkiyeTUR
92.6%
United States
United StatesUSA · HOST
84.8%
Paraguay
ParaguayPAR
66.8%
Australia
AustraliaAUS
35.7%
E
Group E
Germany favoured · 97.1% to advance
Germany
GermanyGER
97.1%
Ecuador
EcuadorECU
92.9%
Ivory Coast
Ivory CoastCIV
79.1%
Curaçao
CuraçaoCUW
12.8%
F
Group F
Netherlands favoured · 96.5% to advance
Netherlands
NetherlandsNED
96.5%
Japan
JapanJPN
87.0%
Sweden
SwedenSWE
75.6%
Tunisia
TunisiaTUN
23.5%
G
Group G
Belgium favoured · 98.3% to advance
Belgium
BelgiumBEL
98.3%
Egypt
EgyptEGY
83.8%
Iran
IranIRN
67.1%
New Zealand
New ZealandNZL
12.7%
H
Group H
Spain favoured · 99.8% to advance
Spain
SpainESP
99.8%
Uruguay
UruguayURU
97.8%
Cape Verde
Cape VerdeCPV
14.8%
Saudi Arabia
Saudi ArabiaKSA
12.3%
I
Group I
France favoured · 99.1% to advance
France
FranceFRA
99.1%
Senegal
SenegalSEN
91.4%
Norway
NorwayNOR
91.4%
Iraq
IraqIRQ
4.1%
J
Group J
Argentina favoured · 99.4% to advance
Argentina
ArgentinaARG
99.4%
Austria
AustriaAUT
88.2%
Algeria
AlgeriaALG
85.4%
Jordan
JordanJOR
6.3%
K
Group K
Portugal favoured · 98.4% to advance
Portugal
PortugalPOR
98.4%
Colombia
ColombiaCOL
95.8%
DR Congo
DR CongoCOD
55.7%
Uzbekistan
UzbekistanUZB
14.4%
L
Group L
England favoured · 99.5% to advance
England
EnglandENG
99.5%
Croatia
CroatiaCRO
95.9%
Ghana
GhanaGHA
33.9%
Panama
PanamaPAN
13.0%